Lots of the WNBA’s largest stars will battle over the following two months in Unrivaled’s inaugural season of 3-on-3 basketball. However earlier than the likes of former MVP Breanna Stewart, fellow 2024 All-WNBA first-team picks Napheesa Collier and Alyssa Thomas, in addition to Brittney Griner and Sabrina Ionescu assist tip off the brand new league Friday, let’s break down the rosters of the six groups vying to convey dwelling the primary championship on March 17.
Since we have by no means seen video games performed utilizing Unrivaled’s guidelines, which embody an 18-second shot clock and a goal rating, amongst different notable modifications from the WNBA, it is inconceivable to say precisely how issues will play out. Nonetheless, we will take a look at the expertise on every roster utilizing my projections for a way these gamers will carry out within the WNBA in the course of the upcoming 2025 marketing campaign.
I’ve used these projections, based mostly on manufacturing over the previous three WNBA seasons, to rank all six groups in offensive and defensive score in addition to how typically we may count on them to win based mostly on these scores. Let’s have a look, beginning with one staff that ranks effectively forward of the remainder.
1. Lunar Owls BC
.604 anticipated win proportion
Roster: Shakira Austin, Napheesa Collier, Skylar Diggins-Smith, Allisha Grey, Courtney Williams, Cameron Brink (IR)
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Collier, who co-founded the league with Stewart, is on a roster stacked on the defensive finish. Though the Lunar Owls venture under common on offense, their estimated defensive score is greater than 4 factors per 100 possessions higher than every other staff.
Clearly, that begins with Collier, the WNBA’s Defensive Participant of the 12 months in 2024. Due to excessive charges of blocks, steals and defensive rebounds, Austin has the second-best defensive projection for any participant within the Unequalled pool behind Collier. And all three Lunar Owls guards charge as above-average defenders for his or her place, although none has made an All-Defensive staff.
One query my projections cannot reply is how taking part in with simply 5 gamers all season may have an effect on the Lunar Owls, who shall be with out Brink, the 2024 No. 2 draft decide, after a June ACL tear. One other minor damage will go away the Lunar Owls perilously skinny. Nonetheless, they’re clear favorites by this methodology.
2. Phantom BC
.540 anticipated win proportion
Roster: Natasha Cloud, Brittney Griner, Sabrina Ionescu, Marina Mabrey, Satou Sabally, Katie Lou Samuelson
The second-ranked staff, in contrast, is all offense. Phantom has the second-worst defensive projection for any staff however the top-rated offense by a large margin. That begins with Ionescu, the highest level guard taking part in in Unequalled. Ionescu has built-in chemistry with Sabally, her teammate for 3 years at Oregon. The final time the 2 All-WNBA picks performed collectively, the Geese led the nation in HerHoopStats offensive score in 2018-19 and 2019-20.
As an inside counterweight, Phantom boasts Griner, who shot a career-high 58% from the sector in 2024. In a 3-on-3 format the place double-teaming shall be practically inconceivable, Griner — who recorded essentially the most post-ups within the WNBA final season, per Second Spectrum monitoring — might be troublesome to cease.
There’s extra firepower coming off the bench within the type of Mabrey, who shot 38% on 3-pointers final season whereas rating within the WNBA’s high 10 in makes — not less than as soon as Mabrey returns from a calf damage that may sideline her for not less than the primary two weeks. And three-time All-Defensive decide Cloud offers Phantom a stronger defensive possibility on the perimeter.
Will Napheesa Collier and the Lunar Owls be the dominant staff in Unequalled? Stephen Maturen/Getty Images3. Vinyl BC
.520 anticipated win proportion
Roster: Aliyah Boston, Rae Burrell, Jordin Canada, Dearica Hamby, Rhyne Howard, Arike Ogunbowale
When it comes to pure scoring, it is laborious to beat Vinyl, which boasts three of the WNBA’s high 16 scorers in 2024 between Hamby (17.3 PPG), Howard (17.3) and Ogunbowale (22.2), in addition to a fourth succesful scorer in Boston (14.0). Phantom is the one different staff that may match these figures.
The duty for Vinyl coach Teresa Weatherspoon shall be ensuring Vinyl’s scorers are built-in collectively somewhat than taking activates offense. Canada, who averaged 5.8 APG throughout an injury-plagued 2024 marketing campaign, shall be key to that job. However Canada, a 24% profession 3-point shooter, should shoot extra just like the 33% she hit in 2023 for opponents to respect her off the ball.
If Weatherspoon can handle that, there is a good steadiness of inside and perimeter energy on Vinyl’s roster.
4. Mist BC
.488 anticipated win proportion
Roster: DiJonai Carrington, Aaliyah Edwards, Rickea Jackson, Jewell Loyd, Breanna Stewart, Courtney Vandersloot
Stewart does not boast a roster that initiatives fairly in addition to her co-founder regardless of having one of the best particular person projection for any participant. Partially, Mist should shoot a lot better than final season, when its gamers mixed to shoot 28.5% on 3s within the WNBA. No different Unequalled staff was under 32% as a bunch. Solely Jackson (35%) beat that mark for Mist in 2024.
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On the plus facet, Mist’s gamers have been way more correct previously, taking pictures 34% profession on 3s — higher than two different groups. Whether or not that regression kicks in shall be essential for a staff that ought to boast sturdy chemistry. Stewart performed the previous two seasons with Vandersloot with the New York Liberty and the remainder of her WNBA profession with Loyd for the Seattle Storm, profitable championships in each stops.
The defensive projections for Mist are sturdy, and it may lock down opponents with its staff perimeter stopper Carrington with Loyd and Stewart, the latter a six-time All-Defensive decide. On condition that potential, I might wager on Mist outperforming this projection.
5. Laces BC
.430 anticipated win proportion
Roster: Stefanie Dolson, Tiffany Hayes, Kate Martin, Kayla McBride, Alyssa Thomas, Jackie Younger
There’s loads to love about how the Laces’ roster is constructed. It places enviable taking pictures — 39% from 3 final season, 37% profession — round one of many WNBA’s greatest non-shooters in Thomas, who completed second in MVP voting in 2023.
Thomas’ means to play level middle permits the Laces to staff her with McBride and Younger in a beginning lineup with ample shot creation and playmaking. Hayes, final season’s Sixth Participant of the 12 months, and Dolson are stable reserves.
From a statistical standpoint, the Laces’ lack of rim safety is an enormous downside. Their roster mixed to dam simply 63 photographs final season, fewer than half the 140 by Lunar Owls’ 5 wholesome gamers. It stays to be seen how vital defending the rim shall be in a 3-on-3 setting in comparison with Thomas’ means to change on protection.
6. Rose BC
.418 anticipated win proportion
Roster: Kahleah Copper, Chelsea Grey, Lexie Hull, Angel Reese, Azura Stevens, Brittney Sykes
The Rose roster shall be an attention-grabbing check case for the worth of effectivity within the 3-on-3 sport. Copper’s means to create her personal shot, Grey’s playmaking and Reese’s offensive rebounding are all elite, however none scored with above-average effectivity in the course of the 2024 WNBA marketing campaign. (Grey was extremely environment friendly in 2022 and 2023.)
Thanks partially to Hull’s sizzling post-Olympics taking pictures, the Laces have been stable from past the arc final season. Inside it, their gamers mixed to shoot simply 45%. No different Unequalled staff was collectively under 48%. With a shorter shot clock, nevertheless, the midrange shotmaking of Copper and Grey may turn into extra comparatively helpful. And will probably be fascinating to see how Reese’s record-setting offensive rebounding interprets to Unequalled.