Andre Snellings, ESPNJul 21, 2023, 12:39 PM ET
Each day of the WNBA season, our team of fantasy and betting experts breaks down every game on the slate, making note of everything from injuries and lineup changes to recent trends and more.
All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook. Times are ET.
Here’s what to look for during today’s slate:
New York Liberty at Washington Mystics
7 p.m. ET, St. Elizabeth East Entertainment and Sports Arena, Washington, DC
Line: Liberty -9.5
Money line: Liberty (-455), Mystics (+345)
Total: 163.5 points
BPI prediction:
Liberty: 56.8% chance to win.
Projected margin of victory: 1.9 points
Injury report
Liberty: Stefanie Dolson (Out), Han Xu (Out)
Mystics: Elena Delle Donne (Out), Shakira Austin (Out), Ariel Atkins (Out), Kristi Toliver (Out)
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Fantasy Streamer: Tianna Hawkins (available in 63.4% of leagues) has moved into the starting lineup with all the injuries to the Mystics, including Elena Delle Donne, Shakira Austin and Ariel Atkins. In her last five games, Hawkins has averaged 13.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3.2 APG, 0.8 SPG and 0.8 3PG in 33.2 MPG.
Best Bet: Mystics +9.5. The Liberty have an average scoring margin this season of +5.7, and in their last 10 games they’ve been right at that mark at +6.1 PPG. The Mystics are at +2.3 on the season, but they’ve been hit by injuries to their frontline, and in their last six games that margin has been -3.5. In a vacuum, that would project to around a 9-point spread. But, first, the game is in Washington which would shade the expected value slightly in their favor. In addition, even with the injuries, the Mystics have only lost by 9 or more points once in the last 11 games. And the Liberty have only won by 9 or more points once in the last eight games. On both sides, the odds point to a closer than 9-point spread.