Andre Snellings, ESPNJul 7, 2023, 12:00 PM ET
Each day of the WNBA season, our team of fantasy and betting experts breaks down every game on the slate, making note of everything from injuries and lineup changes to recent trends and more.
All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook. Times are ET.
Here’s what to look for during today’s slate:
Indiana Fever at Washington Mystics
7:00 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
Line: Mystics -3.5
Money line: Fever (+130), Mystics (-155)
Total: 158 points
BPI prediction:
Mystics: 80.9% chance to win.
Projected margin of victory: 9.9 points
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Fantasy streamers: Queen Egbo (available in 83.7% of ESPN leagues) could be in for a big role with her new team, the Mystics, as soon as Friday against her old team, the Fever. Egbo started at center for the Fever as a rookie and had stretches where she dominated the paint on defense. She couldn’t get into the game often enough this season behind rookie sensation Aliyah Boston, so she was traded to a Mystics team missing injured center Shakira Austin. Egbo has big rebound and shot blocking potential, even without having much time to practice with her new team.
Atlanta Dream at Chicago Sky
8:00 p.m. ET, Wintrust Arena, Chicago
Line: Sky -1
Money line: Dream (-105), Sky (-115)
Total: 170 points
BPI prediction:
Dream: 50.1% chance to win.
Injury report
Dream: Aari McDonald (Out)
Sky: Rebekah Gardner (Out), Isabelle Harrison (Out)
Best bet: Over 170.0 points. On first glance, these two teams are on opposite scoring trends entering the game. The Dream and their opponents have gone over 170.0 points in four of their last five games, and in the fifth game they totaled 169 points. The Sky and their opponents, on the other hand, have gone under 170.0 points in five of their last six games. But, upon closer examination, in two of the Sky’s recent “under” games they held the Sparks (third-lowest scoring offense in the WNBA per game) to an average of 70.5 PPG and in the other three the Sky offense was shut down by strong defenses in the Sun and Mystics. The Dream, on the other hand, score the second-most points in the league at 86.9 PPG, and give up by far the most points on defense at 88.8 PPG. Unlike the other teams in the Sky’s streak, the Dream are unlikely to be slowed down but also unlikely to slow the Sky all that much either. Add in that the Dream plays the fastest pace in the league, and I see this one going over.
Las Vegas Aces at Dallas Wings
8:00 p.m. ET, College Park Center, Arlington
Line: Aces -10
Money line: Aces (-550), Wings (+400)
Total: 174.5 points
BPI prediction:
Aces: 75.9% chance to win.
Projected margin of victory: 7.9 points
Injury report
Aces: No injuries reported
Wings: Kalani Brown (Day-To-Day), Diamond DeShields (Out), Lou Lopez Senechal (Out)
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Best bet: Wings +10. The Aces have been utterly dominant this season, with an average scoring margin of +15.1 PPG. Of the 17 games they’ve played, they’ve won 10 of them by double-digits. But, I see two trends at work today. First, the teams that play the Aces tough once have some tendency to do so again, with four of those seven non-double-digit-wins (including their only loss this season) coming against only two teams. Second, six of those seven non-double-digit-wins came on the road. The Wings fit both trends: they just played the Aces tough on Wednesday in a seven-point loss in Las Vegas, and they’ll be hosting the Aces in Dallas for today’s game. The spread is a robust 10 points, so I’ll take the Wings with the points at home today.
Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx
8:00 p.m. ET, Target Center, Minneapolis
Line: Lynx -5
Money line: Mercury (+170), Lynx (-205)
Total: 163 points
BPI prediction:
Lynx: 64.5% chance to win.
Projected margin of victory: 4.1 points
Injury report
Mercury: Diana Taurasi (Out), Skylar Diggins-Smith (Out)
Lynx: Jessica Shepard (Out), Aerial Powers (Out), Natalie Achonwa (Out), Tiffany Mitchell (Out)
Fantasy streamers: Moriah Jefferson (available in 56.9% of ESPN leagues) has been playing excellent ball of late, averaging 13.2 PPG, 4.0 APG, 2.6 RPG, 1.0 SPG and 1.0 3PG in her last five games. In addition, with Diana Taurasi out (rest), Jefferson should have the ball in her hands even more and should have the chance to build on the 13 assists she’s put up in the past two games, her most over any two-game span this season.
Fantasy streamers: Lindsay Allen (available in 96.0% of ESPN leagues) has been dishing the rock for awhile now, but in recent games has started putting some scoring with her passing. In her past six games, the past four of which were starts, Allen has averaged 7.3 APG, 2.3 RPG and 0.8 SPG. However, she has scored double-digits in two of her four starts, and is coming off a season-high 16 points along with 6 assists, 2 rebounds, 2 steals and a 3-pointers in 33 minutes of her last outing.