Getting into final season, A’ja Wilson battled with Breanna Stewart to be the highest total decide in fantasy girls’s basketball drafts. Wilson responded with an completely dominant 2024 marketing campaign by which she averaged a whopping 50.3 FP/G, virtually 10 fantasy factors greater than the second-highest common within the league (Napheesa Collier, 41.1 FP/G). Recent off a scorching rookie season, Caitlin Clark shapes up as Wilson’s important competitors for that high spot this yr.
Solely 5 gamers averaged 39.5 FP/G or higher final season: Wilson (50.3 FP/G), Collier (41.1 FP/G), Clark (40.4 FP/G), Arike Ogunbowale (39.7 FP/G) and Stewart (39.6 FP/G). No different participant that performed at the least half their video games averaged greater than 34.5 FP/G, leaving a transparent delineation between the highest 5 and the remainder of the league.
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Ogunbowale and Collier are each veteran gamers that set their career-bests in fantasy scoring final season, which makes it unlikely they might shut the big manufacturing hole with Wilson this season. Stewart averaged a career-high 44.4 FP/G in 2023, her first season with the Liberty, so there may be some risk she might bounce again to that stage in 2025. However with Stewart making ready for her ninth season whereas coming off knee surgical procedure, the chances are Wilson would nonetheless be the higher fantasy draft prospect this season.
Then, there may be Clark.
She was the one rookie ranked within the top-5 in fantasy factors per recreation and achieved these numbers regardless of having a comparatively gradual begin to the season as she acclimated to the professional recreation. However she caught fireplace after the All-Star and Olympic break, averaging 21.9 PPG, 9.8 APG and 5.6 RPG within the final 22 video games of the common season, good for 44.3 FP/G. With that as a springboard to her sophomore marketing campaign, there’s a very real looking probability that she might keep these numbers for the season, maybe even enhance on them a bit.
So the query actually turns into, how doubtless is Wilson to copy her manufacturing from final season? As a result of if she averages close to 50 FP/G or above once more, she is exceedingly prone to lead the league once more.
Final season, Wilson set new career-highs in scoring (26.9 PPG), rebounds (11.9 RPG) and blocks (2.6 BPG). At 28 years outdated, Wilson continues to be within the prime of her profession so there is not a cause to count on regression on that entrance. Nevertheless, her scoring spike correlated with Candace Parker’s retirement and Chelsea Grey battling accidents many of the season. She scored extra as a result of the group wanted her to. However with Grey again at full pace and Jewel Loyd taking the place of Kelsey Plum, Wilson won’t put up the identical scoring numbers this yr.
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Alternatively, Wilson stays the Aces major inside presence on each offense and protection. And whereas Grey and Loyd may eat barely into her shot quantity, additionally they ought to open area for Wilson to extend her shot effectivity. In 2023, Grey’s final wholesome season, Wilson shot a career-best 55.7% from the sector, in comparison with 51.7% final season. As well as, taking part in extra usually as the first huge in an in any other case small-ball lineup is strictly what led to Wilson’s profession yr in blocks and boards, so she has the potential to even enhance on these this season.
Whereas Wilson is projected to barely regress throughout the board, she would generate 45.8 FP/G, the very best projected mark within the league by virtually 5 FP over Clark’s projected 41.2 FP/G and Stewart’s 40.9 FP/G. Whereas there may be logical cause to consider these projections might shift a bit in both route, the chances are that Wilson nonetheless maintains an inexpensive hole between her manufacturing and everybody else. And thus, she ought to keep her well-deserved designation as the highest decide in fantasy girls’s basketball this season.